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The market can be wrong longer than you can be liquid

  • By Alan Knott-Craig
  • November 11, 2017

So you’ve created a new software platform for trading Bitcoin.

It’s exactly what the market needs. It’s exactly what consumers need.

You’re burning R50,000 every month, but it’s just a matter of time before people wake up and flock to your product.

You sit back and wait.

Six months go by. People have not realized your genius yet.

Twelve months go by. People are still oblivious. The fools.

Eighteen months go by. You’ve spent R900,000. The market is wrong but you’re out of cash. You shut down the platform.

The market was wrong longer than you could be liquid.

Six months later someone else starts a platform just like yours. The market suddenly wakes up and customers flood onto the new company. The founder becomes a billionaire.

It’s no good being right. The market must know you’re right. And you must have enough liquidity to wait under the market wakes up.