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4 factors when making a decision

  • By Alan Knott-Craig
  • February 4, 2025
  1. Intuition (gut) (system 1 thinking according to Kahneman)
  2. Rational thought (brain) (system 2 thinking according to Kahneman)
  3. Selfishness (what do I want?)
  4. Peer pressure (what do other people want me to do?)

When operating within your circle of competence, intuition is most important. The “10,000 Hour” rule says that once you have enough experience in a certain area, your gut feeling is mostly right.

Intuition should defer to rational thinking in areas outside your circle of competence.

Selfishness (what’s good for me) comes ahead of what the crowd wants you to do, always.

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