ANC at 40%!
MK at 14%!
EFF down 1%!
WTF? What just happened? Where did MK come from? Who’s gonna run the country? Who’s gonna be president? Will there be riots?!
Don’t panic.
This past week will go down as one of the most momentous in SA history.
No matter how the cards fall, South African politics has changed forever.
Firstly, more people will vote in future elections.
For the past 76 years, many millions of South Africa have never voted. Why? Because they felt the result was a foregone conclusion.
From 1948 to 1994, the National Party always had a majority.
Since 1994, the ANC has always had a majority.
No matter how you voted, those outcomes never changed. That’s why many people stayed at home. Why vote if it doesn’t change the outcome?
For the first time since 1948, the outcome of the national elections is not a guaranteed majority for a single party.
We finally have some competition.
We are not a one-party state any longer.
Our votes matter.
THE ANC GOT 40%!
I have to repeat that. Not only does it mean no more one-party-state, but it means the options for coalition partners are limited.
Not even the EFF can give the ANC a majority.
Assuming the MK Party is being serious when it swears to will never work with the ANC, that means the ANC has two choices for governing:
- Coalition with the DA
- Coalition with lots of small parties
Which means there’s a 50/50 chance that as of 17 June South Africa has an ANC/DA government of national unity.
Can you imagine?
Who would have thunk that a few years ago? A few months ago? A few days ago?
Regardless of the outcome of the coming weeks frenzy of behind-the-scenes negotiations, our country has changed.
- We are now a true democracy, no more one-party rule.
- Our government won’t be able to bulldoze through laws and regulations.
- Dodgy politicians will struggle to hide corruption. It’s hard to steal when you have to share the steering wheel.
- More people will vote at the next election because everyone now knows their vote counts. Which means more political competition, more accountability, etc. refer points 1-3.
The coming year will probably still have unpleasantness: Crime, load shedding, water shedding, corruption, coalition instability, rain, drought and maybe a plague of locusts 😀.
But somehow, as always, against all the odds, contrary to all pundit opinions, sunny SA will come out ok the other side.
Don’t panic.